Meanwhile, the DOH said the variant first discovered in the Philippines needs to be studied further in order to determine whether it is a cause for concern. The country so far has 98 cases of the P.3 variant.
Metro Manila (CNN Philippines, March 17) — A Department of Health official on Wednesday warned the Philippines’ COVID-19 cases may “increase by 28 times” after a month if “variants of concern” become dominant in the country.
So far, variants of concern have only been detected in less than 6.6% of the samples sequenced by the University of the Philippines-Philippine Genome Center and the UP National Institutes of Health, according to Dr. Alethea de Guzman, medical specialist at the DOH Epidemiology Bureau.
But if these variants are found in all future samples, De Guzman said infections can become 28 times higher than the current number in just a month. She warned such a grim milestone “would truly overwhelm our health system.”
“Sa lahat na nase-sequence na samples, wala pang 7% dito ay mga variants of concern. Ayaw nating umabot sa punto na lahat na ng samples na nase sequence natin ay magiging variants of concern na,” de Guzman said in a briefing.
[Translation: Of all the samples that were sequenced, only less than 7% had variants of concern. We don’t want to reach a point where we will find variants of concern in all the samples we will be sequencing.]
“Kapag ganun po—ang nakikita nating pagtaas—hindi lang po three times, four times. Pwedeng up to 28 times ang makikita natin,” de Guzman added.
[Translation: If that happens, the cases may not just become three or four times higher than the current figures, but 28 times bigger.]
The Philippines has so far recorded 177 UK variant cases, 90 South Africa variant cases, and one case involving the variant first detected in Brazil. These are considered “variants of concern” as they carry mutations that appear to make the SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, easier to spread than previously known variants, or may reduce the protection provided by currently available vaccines as studies have shown they could evade some antibodies.
She added 39 local cases of the UK variant called B.1.1.7 were recorded in Metro Manila, 41 in Cordillera Administrative Region, two in Central Luzon, four in Calabarzon, and one in Northern Mindanao. Metro Manila, Cagayan Valley, and Northern Mindanao reported local cases of the South Africa variant also known as B.1.351.
The number of coronavirus infections nationwide climbed to 635,698 on Wednesday, 61,733 of which are active cases or currently ill. More than 88% of the total cases are considered recovered. Meanwhile, the death toll stood at 12,866.
Factors behind the spike
The Philippines has recently been recording more than 4,000 to over 5,000 new infections per day.
The official said they observed COVID-19 is spreading faster in areas that have variant cases. She added the variants of concern were “contributing to the spike.”
But De Guzman pointed out that even areas without new variants “have experienced growth in cases.” This means the huge increase can also be attributed to “mobility” and “poor adherence to minimum health standards,” she explained.
She added most of those getting ill were reporting they got infected either in their homes or their workplaces.
De Guzman said the DOH and the World Health Organization are looking into the P.3 variant. She added that it will be called a variant of concern if there’s evidence that it is more transmissible and causes a more severe disease, higher risk of death, or lower vaccine efficacy.
“Meron kaming mga kasunod na mga meetings with the World Health Organization para pag-aralan siya,” De Guzman said. “Ang WHO ang nag-iimbestiga kung talagang anong klaseng variant ito.”
[Translation: We have meetings with the World Health Organization to study it. It’s the WHO which investigates to determine the variant’s type.]
Of the total cases with variants of concern, 27% or 74 were inbound travelers—73 overseas Filipinos and one foreigner, according to De Guzman.
